Best Pacing Strategy for Marathon According to Science!

Your pace is all about how fast you’re moving, usually described in terms of minutes per kilometer or mile. For instance, if you clock in at 5 minutes and 30 seconds for your first kilometer, then your current pace is 5 minutes and 30 seconds.

If you continue to run another 9 kilometers and you finish in 60 minutes, your average pace will be 6 minutes.

So, what’s a race pace strategy? Think of it as your game plan, a blueprint that helps you figure out how fast you should be running at different stages of a race to get the best possible results.

But wait, what does science have to say about the best pacing strategy?

The Race Pace for Best Results

So, what’s the magic formula for the perfect pacing strategy?

The answer lies in the book “Science and Practice of Middle and Long Distance Running,” specifically in chapter 12, “Strategic and Tactical Decision Making in Races.”

I had the chance to chat with Brian Hanley, one of the chapter’s co-authors, to get his take on the best pacing strategy. Here’s what he had to say:

“There’s no doubt that an even pace is the best strategy for distance running. If you’re aiming for a 3-hour marathon, you want to hit the halfway mark in 1 hour and 30 minutes. The first quarter should be done in a quarter of that time—45 minutes.”

So, the key takeaway is to keep your splits as steady as possible. If you’ve still got energy left in the tank, you can pick up the pace in the final kilometers and maybe even negative split, meaning you run the second half faster than the first.

Now, there’s a catch. This even pace strategy has a major limitation when the course is loaded with hills. But don’t worry, let’s talk about that…

Troubleshooting for Hills

As mentioned earlier, an even pace strategy might not be your best friend if your marathon course features a significant number of hills.

Why?

Because trying to maintain a consistent pace while climbing those inclines can quickly deplete your energy reserves.

Brian Hanley explains it well: “Think about a cyclist going up a hill. It’s a lot of work, but when they reach the top, they can coast down and recover without expending any energy. Runners, on the other hand, only regain about half of what they lose when running. So, if you lose 30 seconds running up a hill, you might only gain back 15 seconds on the downhill.”

The solution here is to shift from an even pace to an even effort level. Instead of focusing on maintaining a specific pace, concentrate on keeping a consistent effort throughout the race.

For instance, if your goal marathon pace is 5 minutes and 18 seconds per kilometer (8:33 per mile) on a flat course, adjust your effort on the hills. This might mean slowing down to conserve energy on the way up and not pushing too hard on the descent, allowing you to recover more effectively and maintain a steady effort level throughout.

When you run steadily at your goal pace on flat terrain, especially during long training runs, you’re calibrating your internal effort level. This helps you develop a sense of how hard or easy that pace feels. On race day, when you hit the hills, match this effort level instead of focusing on your pace.

Expect your overall race time to be slower on a hilly course compared to a flat one—this is perfectly normal. By maintaining a consistent effort level, you’ll navigate the course more efficiently, conserving energy and achieving the best possible results under the conditions.

Best Pace Monitoring Strategy Runners

One great way to stay on track is by following race pacers.

These experienced runners, often found in big events, carry flags or wear markers indicating their expected finish time. By finding the pacer that aligns with your goal, you can simply stick with them, eliminating the guesswork and mental burden of pacing yourself. They typically aim for even splits, helping you maintain a consistent pace throughout the race.

Another useful tip is to monitor your splits with your watch. You can set alerts for each mile, kilometer, or longer intervals like 5 or 10 kilometers, ensuring you’re hitting your target pace and making adjustments as needed. This keeps you focused and on track for your desired finish time.

So, how do you figure out the perfect pace for race day?

Calculating Your Pace Race?

Brian Hanley emphasizes the importance of maintaining an even pace for optimal results. But how do you determine that sweet spot?

Past Marathons
Recent Training
– Sickness or Injury
Race-Day Weather
– Hot & Humid

Let’s break it down:

Past Marathons and Recent Training:

If you’ve run marathons before, use your previous race times as a reference point. Also, consider how your recent training has been. Have you been dealing with any injuries or illnesses? These factors, along with the current state of your training, will help you fine-tune your goal pace.

Race-Day Weather:

Don’t forget to factor in the weather. Hot and humid conditions can slow you down, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

If this is your first marathon and you don’t have past marathon times to reference, here’s a handy tip from Brian Hanley:

“If you are a good runner, take your best half marathon time, double it, and add 10 minutes to account for the extra fatigue. For recreational runners, add 20 minutes instead.

For example, if your best half marathon time is 1 hour and 40 minutes, double it to get 3 hours and 20 minutes, then add 20 minutes, giving you a target marathon time of 3 hours and 40 minutes.

Plug this final time into an online calculator, like the one from Runner’s World, to find your even pace. For the example above, it would be about 5 minutes and 13 seconds per kilometer or 8 minutes and 24 seconds per mile.

No Half Marathon Experience? You can use your 5K or 10K times, but keep in mind that the prediction might be less accurate because it’s a shorter distance.

Start Conservatively: One key piece of advice is to start the race slightly slower than your calculated pace. The book “Science and Practice of Middle and Long Distance Running” suggests that “Marathon runners are advised to start conservatively based on their present fitness and target time to avoid slowing in the second half of the race.”

In other words, you might feel confident about maintaining a certain pace for the full 26.2 miles (42 kilometers), but if you misjudge and start too fast, it can significantly increase fatigue and negatively affect your finish time.

So, there’s a clear benefit to starting at a more conservative pace, which gives you a better chance of staying strong through the entire race.

Biggest Pacing Mistakes

If you’ve checked out our article on the biggest marathon mistakes, you know that one of the most common errors runners make in their first marathon is starting out too fast.

It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement, feel pressured when others pass by, or simply be swept up in the energy of the start line, throwing off your well-laid plans.

Sometimes, this speed surge is unintentional, but other times, runners knowingly take the risk, hoping it will pay off.

However, a study by Deener, which surveyed 1,300 marathon runners, found that “marathoners who slow more in the second half of the race exhibit a larger discrepancy between their pre-race self forecasts and their actual performance.”

This suggests that overconfidence can lead to a significant slowdown in the second half of the race compared to those who start at a more measured pace.

Deener also concluded that “identifying risk-taking behavior was a robust predictor of marathon slowing,” resulting in slower overall times.

This highlights the importance of sensible planning; It is often said that for every minute you run too fast at the start, you could sacrifice two minutes in the second half.

Race Pace Adjustments

Let’s revisit our marathon example where we calculated an even pace of 5 minutes and 13 seconds per kilometer. Given what we’ve discussed, it might be wise to adjust this pace slightly towards a more conservative approach.

Aiming for a starting pace of 5 minutes and 18 seconds per kilometer, or 8 minutes and 33 seconds per mile, could be a smarter strategy. This adjustment could help you manage your energy better and set you up for a stronger second half of the race.

However, this advice shifts when it comes to elite runners aiming for top finishes. For them, every second counts, and their pacing strategies often differ.

So, while a conservative approach may benefit most runners, elites might need a more aggressive strategy to maximize their performance.

Pacing Strategies for Elites

Ever watched elite runners in action and wondered why they often don’t stick to an even pace? That’s because these top athletes are masters of strategy, constantly jostling for position and using tactical surges to outmaneuver their competitors.

But don’t be fooled—there’s still science behind their pacing. Research by Hettinga shows that even elite runners benefit from a conservative start. By easing into the race, they maintain the flexibility to adapt their speed and respond dynamically to changes from other runners.

When elites are chasing personal bests without the pressure of competitors, their strategy often reverts to a more consistent pace.

A prime example is Eliud Kipchoge’s record-breaking marathon in Vienna. With ideal weather, a perfectly flat course, and a car as a pacer, Kipchoge maintained near-perfect splits throughout, demonstrating the power of a well-executed even pace strategy.

You can see that his top performance had almost identical splits:

We’ve learned by now that this strategy has a profound physiological benefit and gives you the best chance to rate a personal best, but one thing you may not consider is the added psychological boost…

Psychological Advantages

Running a marathon isn’t just a physical challenge; it’s a mental battleground too. Starting off conservatively isn’t just about pacing; it’s about giving your psyche a boost as well.

Imagine this: You’re cruising through the first half of the race at a conservative pace. As you reach the second half of the race, you start overtaking those who went out too fast.

That surge of passing people is a powerful psychological lift. Brian Hanley puts it perfectly: “If you let people get too far ahead of you, it can be quite demoralizing. So what people do is they keep it up with others. It makes them feel better that they’re with a group, but I think that backfires in the end because when you get tired, you drop off and that becomes even more demoralizing than if you let them go in the first place.”

He added: “I think a better strategy psychologically is to start off slowly. Be disciplined in knowing that they’re going to come back to me and gain from when you start passing them out towards the end. So, there’s nothing better than in the last half that you’re passing people out gives you a real boost and you feel like you’re going a lot faster than you actually are and it really encourages you to finish. The opposite of that is when people are passing you out and that’s no fun at all.”

So, not only does a conservative start offer physiological advantages, but it also provides a significant mental edge. You’re not just running smart; you’re also setting yourself up for a morale-boosting finish.

Cognitive Load When Racing

Constantly monitoring your pace requires brain power and your brain requires energy to operate. So, if your brain is constantly operating at a high level with checks and balances, it is going to zap important energy from the rest of the body.

Think of it like this: the more you’re mentally juggling your pace, the more energy your brain is burning. This means less energy is available for your legs and lungs. To cross the finish line with the best results, you want to minimize mental fatigue and focus on smooth, efficient running.

In other words, simplify your race-day strategy to conserve both your physical and mental energy. The less you have to think about, the more you can reserve for the crucial moments of the race.

Wrap Up

There you have it—your ultimate guide to the best pacing strategy for marathon! From the science-backed best approaches to handling those pesky hills and making smart adjustments on race day, you’re now armed with the knowledge to fine-tune your pace and boost your performance.

Remember, starting off conservatively and pacing yourself evenly can set you up for a strong finish, both physically and psychologically. And don’t forget, managing your cognitive load helps keep your energy focused where it’s needed most.

Now it’s your turn. What pacing strategies have worked for you? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments—I’d love to hear how you plan to put these tips into action!

Next article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo1d2IP3_G0&ab_channel=RunSmarterwithBrodieSharpe%7CPhysio

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The Best Pacing Strategy for Marathon According to Science!